Start here:

• The great filter (Robin Hanson)
• Modeling the human trajectory (David Roodman, 2020)
• Shall we vote on values, but bet on beliefs? (Robin Hanson)
• Long-term trajectories of human civilisation (Baum et al., 2019)

Further reading:

• Long-term growth as a sequence of exponential modes (Robin Hanson, 1998)
• This is the dream time (Robin Hanson)
• AI foom debate (Hanson and Yudkowksy, 2011)
• The fable of the dragon-tyrant (Nick Bostrom)
• Future filter fatalism (Carl Shulman)
• Characterising utopia (Richard Ngo)
• Space races: settling the universe fast (Sandberg)
• Spreading happiness to the stars seems little harder than just spreading (Carl Shulman)
• Financial returns of interstellar colonisation for the sedentary (Carl Shulman)
• Burning the cosmic commons (Robin Hanson)
• The future of human evolution (Bostrom)
• Whole brain emulation: a roadmap (Sandberg and Bostrom, 2008)
• Transhumanist values (Bostrom)