Long-range forecasting
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Applied to Is the Far Future Irrelevant for Moral Decision-Making? ago
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Applied to I'm building a long-termist 'neo-news' platform ago
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Applied to Nuclear war tail risk has been exaggerated? ago
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Applied to Summary: Maximal Cluelessness (Andreas Mogensen) ago
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Applied to Takeaways from the Metaculus AI Progress Tournament ago
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Applied to Il superforecasting in breve ago
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Applied to Range and Forecasting Accuracy ago
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Applied to Probability of extinction for various types of catastrophes ago
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Applied to [Linkpost] Dan Luu: Futurist prediction methods and accuracy ago
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Applied to Superforecasting Long-Term Risks and Climate Change ago
Long-range forecasting is forecasting involving long time horizons. Long-range forecasts are sometimes defined as involving events at least 10 years into the future,[1] although there is no agreed-upon definition.
Karnofsky, Holden (2022) The track record of futurists seems … fine, Cold Takes, June 30.
AI forecasting | cluelessness | estimation of existential risk | forecasting | long-term future | longtermism
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Muehlhauser, Luke (2019) How feasible is long-range forecasting?, Open Philanthropy, October 10.
Muehlhauser, Luke (2019) How feasible is long-range forecasting?, Open Philanthropy, October 10.
Long-range forecasting is forecasting involving long time horizons. Long-range forecasts are sometimes defined as involving events at least 10 years into the future,[1] although there is no generally agreed-upon definition.