Manifold Markets

Note that you can embed Manifold Markets in foum posts and wiki entries!

A video tutorial is also available^[1].

Most markets are yes/no (e.g. 'Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022?'^[1]2]). Users buy 'shares' at a price determined by the current bet (the lower the probability assigned to your outcome when you bet, the cheaper the shares), which each resolve to M$1 if you're correct, or M$0 if you're wrong.

Here's an example market^[1]2]; we can buy shares for yes or no with the purple arrows:

As of July 2022, Manifold Markets has received $1.5 million in funding from the Future Fund,^[2]3] and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund.^[3]4]

1. ^{^}

   Manifold Markets Tutorial, Victoria Brook (2022)

2. ^{^}

   Manifold Markets, Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)

3. ^{^}

   Future Fund (2022) Our grants and investments: Manifold Markets, Future Fund.

4. ^{^}

   Survival and Flourishing Fund (2021) SFF-2022-H1 S-Process recommendations announcement, Survival and Flourishing Fund.

Most markets are yes/no (e.g. 'Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022?'^[1]). Users buy 'shares' at a price determined by the current bet (the lower the probability assigned to your outcome when you bet, the cheaper the shares), which each resolve to M$1 if you're correct, or M$0 if you're wrong.

Here's an example market;market^[1]; we can buy shares for yes or no with the purple arrows:

As of July 2022, Manifold Markets has received $1.5 million in funding from the Future Fund,^[1]2] and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund.^[2]3]

1. ^{^}

   Manifold Markets, Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)

2. ^{^}

   Future Fund (2022) Our grants and investments: Manifold Markets, Future Fund.

3. ^{^}

   Survival and Flourishing Fund (2021) SFF-2022-H1 S-Process recommendations announcement, Survival and Flourishing Fund.

Below, we've spent $10M$10 in favour. Because the market is at 20%, this buys us 53 yesYES shares. If the market resolves yes, we'll net back $53M$53 for our $10M$10 investment: