Round 2 of the Climate Tipping Points Tournament is now live. Metaculus has launched new policy-focused questions that further develop the Round 1 indicator categories identified as most critical. This round also includes conditional questions designed to quantify the impacts of specific policies or events coming to pass.

$2,500 Commentary Prize

Round 2 questions are eligible for $2,500 in prizes awarded for comments that:

• are well-reasoned and clear
• identify mistakes in the community’s reasoning or clearly explain why the author’s forecast differs from the community’s
• provide a detailed explanation of the impact of a parent question on a child question in a pair of conditional questions

Round 2 questions include the Round 2 tag and can be found here.

Comments must be submitted before July 1st to be eligible. Only Round 2 questions are eligible for the Commentary Prize. See the tournament page for more details.

$2,500 Accuracy Prize

Both Round 2 and Round 1 questions that resolve before March 1st, 2027 are eligible for the accuracy prize, and we will launch an additional wave of Round 2 questions in the coming weeks.