EA is a social movement, and social movements are, in general, ineffective, toxic, wasteful, and stupid. Currently EA seems to rank lower than most social movements, and most institutions of its size (in people & resources) on all three of those properties. But why?

What is the secret to EA's success? I don't know. I have not heard a convincing argument from anyone else. Are EAs smarter than others? Yes, but so were communists. Is it the rationality? Maybe, but I'd guess most EAs haven't actually read the sequences. I'd guess that nowadays a good chunk don't even know what they are. Maybe the sequences have seeped far enough into EA culture that that doesn't matter? Then shouldn't we be prepared for a return-to-the-mean as more people are added who have never been exposed to that culture, surrounded by others who have also never been exposed to that culture?

I think yes, we should be prepared for that return-to-the-mean. Especially now that EA is more funding constrained than talent constrained.