Summary

The Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED) team recently connected with the EA community in London at EA Global. Thank you for your interest in and support of our work at the intersection of food systems resilience and global catastrophic risks, such as nuclear winter and tail risks from climate change.

Our work is inherently interdisciplinary, and our goal of global food systems resilience requires wide-ranging expertise and perspectives. Whether you’ve been following our work for a while or are new to what ALLFED does, we hope you dive in by checking out some of our biggest accomplishments from 2021 (here are the 2020 highlights).

We have nearly completed our prioritization of the most promising resilient foods (formerly alternative foods) that could be scaled up quickly and would be low cost. We are now ready to facilitate pilot demonstrations of scaling up these foods quickly, such as repurposing a paper factory to produce food. Therefore, our room for more funding is ~$100 million USD over the next 5 years, while smaller amounts would support our efforts to find financial mechanisms to fund pilots, small-scale demonstration of leaf protein concentrate from nettle leaves in Nepal, country-by-country resilient food analyses, and research on backup plans for scenarios that could disrupt electricity/industry, such as an extreme pandemic causing people to be too fearful to show up to work at critical industries. Our work has been estimated to be highly cost effective from both the near-term and long-term perspectives.

If you value our work and want to help us contribute to global food system resilience, please consider supporting ALLFED! We need additional funding to maintain and grow our projects. In particular, we encourage you to consider participating in two matching opportunities:

• The Every.org Fall Giving Challenge is currently underway and won’t last for much longer (see a realtime dashboard of remaining funds here). Please message David if you would like to double your $100 donation to almost any charity, by donating to ALLFED in exchange for David donating to the charity of your choice.
• Facebook’s Giving Tuesday match is coming up on November 30, 2021 (for instructions and important updates, please sign up at EA Giving Tuesday).

We would like to take this opportunity to thank Jill Stone, Carina and Thomas Denkenwolf, Sam Brenner as well as a great many of our other donors for enabling our work this year.

New resources on our work

• We have submitted or are about to submit 10 articles to peer-reviewed journals this year.
• Our new website puts forward our latest research on resilient food solutions, and is a growing repository of learning resources for catastrophic risks to food.
• We have a new video on resource-efficient resilient foods that could not only remove barriers facing astronauts undertaking deep-space missions, but could also make refuges more economical and help feed more people on Earth today or in a catastrophe.
• David Denkenberger returned to the 80,000 Hours Podcast (episode available here) to revisit ALLFED’s work after his 2018 interview with Robert Wiblin, which is featured in the new 80,000 Hours Podcast series Effective Altruism: 10 Global Problems.
• On our Twitter we regularly shared updates on our work, alongside new research and articles on global catastrophic risks, existential threats, resilient foods, and food security.
• The latest Global Challenges Foundation report featured our work on resilient foods as part of its exploration into the challenges posed by several catastrophic threats.
• Our work is explored in episode 81: What does humanity need to survive after a global catastrophe? of the Clearer Thinking podcast with Spencer Greenberg.

Operations and internal resilience

• Operationally, we are in the final stages of a major systems overhaul and a new CRM implementation.
• In 2021, we have further built our organizational resilience and response capacity, with all team members now equipped with a pocket response plan and internal crisis communications cascades in place. (We would be interested in connecting with other EA organizations about these resources, to bolster operational resilience within the EA community.)
• We have overhauled our data management and security and are currently looking at community-based distributed data escrows, and ways of making more of our work publicly accessible in the event of a catastrophe.

New connections we forged this year on our team and beyond

• We took the opportunity presented by EA Global to gather 14 members of our team together for ALLFED’s first team retreat in London.
• Our Board of Advisors grew this year with the valuable additions of Carina Fearnley, Sella Nevo, Scott David, Peter Alexander, and Talib Butt.
• This year our team welcomed Rick Holland as our new Director of Development and Mike Hinge as our new Senior (Agricultural) Economist. We continued to benefit from the industrious work of many volunteers.
• The Food Systems Handbook continued to build connections around the world through ongoing events and collaborations.
• We continued to collaborate with Effective Thesis to supervise and advise students around the world researching potentially impactful solutions to the world’s important problems, completing two theses.
• We became an associate partner of the Marine Bioproducts Cooperative Research Centre. We’re excited to supervise research and advise industry and research partners on how to incorporate resilience into their work. The ultimate goal of our collaboration is to increase the utility of two key resilient food solutions: macroalgae and single cell proteins.

New ways to get involved

• To add to our well-established volunteer program, we have launched our internship program—contact us for more information.
• We now accept crypto donations!

New and continuing research we progressed this year

We submitted or are about to submit 10 new peer-reviewed journal articles. Of particular note, we have an integrated model taking into account the interactions between different resilient foods. We also have a nutrition paper focusing on affordable resilient foods. Furthermore, we have analyzed agricultural yield in a loss of electricity/industry scenario. In addition, we wrapped up several NASA-funded projects.

Research destined for peer review (or already through)

• Deployment of resilient foods greatly reduces famine in an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario
• Nutrition in abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios: envisioning feasible balanced diets on resilient foods
• Simulating potential yield if industry is disabled: Applying a generalized linear modelling approach to major food crops
• Quantifying Resilient Food Potential of Agricultural Residue in Rural Communities of sub-Saharan Africa
• Open Source Software Toolchain for Automated Non-Targeted Screening for Toxins in Alternative Foods
• Potential of microbial electrosynthesis for contributing to food production using CO₂ during global agriculture-inhibiting disasters
• U.S. Potential of Sustainable Backyard Distributed Animal and Plant Protein Production During & After Pandemics
• Chemical synthesis of food from CO₂ for space missions and food resilience
• Food production in space from CO₂ using microbial electrosynthesis
• Risk analysis and corrosion prevention during industrial power failure

Other research projects

• Crop Diseases & Pests - Roundtable Report on Interventions
• Alternative financial products for food security
• Pandemic Resilience Bond Modelling - Assessing the Role of Travel Networks in Pandemic Risk from Emerging Infectious Diseases
• Promoting disaster preparedness and resilience through financial risk management and innovation

Details on our research in 2021

Deployment of resilient foods greatly reduces famine in an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario

Morgan Rivers, Michael Hinge, Juan B. García Martínez, Ross Tieman, Victor Jaeck, Talib E. Butt, David C. Denkenberger

Status: submitted (link to preprint)

Abstract: In a nuclear war, volcanic eruption, asteroid or comet impact that causes an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario (ASRS), agricultural yields would plummet. Global society is currently unprepared for such an event, implying an urgent need for evaluation and prioritization of solutions. We show effective deployment of resilient food solutions appears sufficient to fulfill global energy and macronutrient food requirements, potentially saving billions from famine. A Monte Carlo analysis of resilient food outcomes, using a linear optimization model, shows a 95% probability of global food availability between 2,100 and 3,500 Kcals per capita per day in a nuclear winter scenario involving 150 Tg of soot in the stratosphere. Our analysis indicates nutritionally sufficient diets from resilient foods would be widely affordable, costing US$1.73 daily, though subsidization could be needed across Southern Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Post-disaster conflict or insufficient international cooperation could increase costs and reduce output, hampering effective resilient food deployment.

Nutrition in abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios: envisioning feasible balanced diets on resilient foods

A. Pham, J. B. García Martínez, V. Brynych, J. M. Pearce, R. Stormbjorne, D. C. Denkenberger

Status: published (link)

Abstract: Abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (ASRS) following catastrophic events, such as a nuclear war, a large volcanic eruption or an asteroid strike, could prompt global agricultural collapse. There are low-cost foods that could be made available in an ASRS: resilient foods. Nutritionally adequate combinations of these resilient foods are investigated for different stages of a scenario with an effective response, based on existing technology. While macro- and micronutrient requirements were overall met, some—potentially chronic—deficiencies were identified (e.g., vitamins D, E and K). Resilient sources of micronutrients for mitigating these and other potential deficiencies are presented. The results of this analysis suggest that no life-threatening micronutrient deficiencies or excesses would necessarily be present given preparation to deploy resilient foods and an effective response. Careful preparedness and planning—such as stock management and resilient food production ramp-up—is indispensable for an effective response that not only allows for fulfilling people’s energy requirements, but also prevents severe malnutrition.

Simulating potential yield if industry is disabled: Applying a generalized linear modelling approach to major food crops

Jessica Mörsdorf, David Denkenberger

Status: about to be submitted

Abstract: Modern civilization is highly dependent on industrial agriculture. Industrial agriculture in turn has become an increasingly complex and globally interconnected system whose historically unprecedented productivity and yield relies strongly on external energy inputs in the shape of machinery, mineral fertilizers, and pesticides. It leaves the system vulnerable to disruptions of industrial production and international trade. Several scenarios have the potential to damage electrical infrastructure on a global scale, including electromagnetic pulses caused by solar storms or the detonation of nuclear warheads in the upper atmosphere, as well as a globally coordinated cyber attack. In addition, a severe pandemic could lead to the abandonment of critical infrastructure, de facto preventing industrial production and transportation. The current COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of crisis preparation and the establishment of more resilient systems. To improve preparation for high-stakes risk scenarios, their impact especially on critical supply systems must be better understood. To further the understanding of consequences for global food production, this work aims to estimate the effect the global inhibition of industrial production could have on the crop yields of maize, rice, soybean, and wheat.

A generalized linear model with a gamma distribution was calibrated on current crop-specific gridded global yield datasets at five arcmin resolution. Gridded datasets on the temperature regime, the moisture regime, soil characteristics, nitrogen, phosphorus and pesticide application rates, the fraction of irrigated area and a proxy to determine whether farm activities are mechanized were chosen as explanatory variables. The model was then used to predict crop yields in two phases following a global catastrophe which inhibits the usage of any electric services. Phase 1 reflects conditions in the year immediately after the catastrophe, assuming the existence of fertilizer, pesticides, and fuel stocks. In phase 2 all stocks are used up and fertilizer, pesticides and fuel are not available anymore.

While the fit varies depending on the crop, the model agrees well with the data based on McFadden's pseudo-R² (maize: 0.45, rice: 0.41, soybean: 0.34, wheat: 0.38). The predictions showed a reduction in yield of 10-30% in phase 1 and between 34 and 43% in phase 2. Overall Europe, North and South America and large parts of India, China and Indonesia are projected to face major yield reductions of up to 95% while most African countries are scarcely affected.

The findings clearly indicate hotspot regions which align with the level of industrialization of agriculture. Further, it is shown that the yield reduction is likely to be substantial, especially in industrialized countries. The analysis also provides insights on major factors influencing crop yield under losing industry circumstances. Due to data unavailability some crucial factors could not be included in the model, but their qualitative discussion leads to the conclusion that the presented results can be considered optimistic, and that further research is needed to quantify the impact of the omitted aspects.

Quantifying Resilient Food Potential of Agricultural Residue in Rural Communities of sub-Saharan Africa

B. Ugwoke, R. Tieman, A. Mill, D. Denkenberger^., J. M. Pearce

Status: submitted

Abstract: Food insecurity is a major global issue affecting all countries both during normal times and catastrophes; however, ten countries in the world constitute 65% (88 million people) of the worst cases and certain African countries have been severely affected such that 54% of the population (73 million people) are acutely food-insecure, in crisis or worse. Recent work has found technical potential for feeding humanity during global catastrophes using leaves as stop-gap resilient foods. To determine the potential for adopting agricultural residue (especially crop leaves) as food in food insecure areas now, this study provides a new methodology to quantify the calories available as resilient foods from residue at the community scale. A case study is performed on two communities in Nigeria to compare national level values to those available in rural communities. Two residue utilization cases were considered, representing a pessimistic and optimistic case for human edible calories gained. The results find that between 3.0 and 13.8 million Gcal are available in Nigeria per year from harvesting agricultural residue as resilient food. This is enough to feed between 3.9 and 18.1 million people per year or enough to cover 10 - 48% of Nigeria’s current estimated total food deficit. It is clear toxicological work is needed before this potential can be realized for this to scale to relieve both current hunger and hunger caused by a GCR event anywhere in the world. In addition, future work is needed to address the long-term sustainability of this approach as agricultural residues help maintain soil health.

Open Source Software Toolchain for Automated Non-Targeted Screening for Toxins in Alternative Foods

S. W. Breuer, L. Toppen, S.K. Schum, and J.M. Pearce. MethodsX, 8, 2021, 101551.

Status: published (link)

Previously published methods for non-targeted screening of toxins in alternative foods such as leaf concentrate, agricultural residues or plastic fed to biological consortia are time consuming and expensive and thus present accessibility, as well as, time-constraint issues for scientists from under-resourced settings to identify safe alternative foods. The novel methodology presented here utilizes a completely free and open source software toolchain for automatically screening unknown alternative foods for toxicity using experimental data from ultra-high-pressure liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry. The process uses three distinct tools (mass spectrometry analysis with MZmine 2, formula assignment with MFAssignR, and data filtering with ToxAssign) enabling it to be modular and easily upgradable in the future. MZmine 2 and MFAssignR have been previously described, while ToxAssign was developed here to match the formulas output by formula assignment to potentially toxic compounds in a local table, then look up toxic data on the Open Food Tox Database for the matched compounds. This process is designed to fill the gap between food safety analysis techniques and developing alternative food production techniques to allow for new methods of food production to be preliminarily tested before animal testing. The methodology was validated against a previous method using proprietary commercial software. The new process identifies all of the toxic elements the previous process identified with more detailed information than the previous process was able to provide automatically.

Potential of microbial electrosynthesis for contributing to food production using CO₂ during global agriculture-inhibiting disasters

J.B. García Martínez, M.M. Brown, X. Christodoulou, K.A. Alvarado, D.C. Denkenberger. Cleaner Engineering and Technology, Volume 4, October 2021, 100139.

Status: published (link)

Abstract: A sun-blocking global catastrophic risk (GCR) such as a nuclear winter could cause a near-complete collapse of the agricultural system. Producing resilient foods through methods requiring little to no sunlight has been identified as a cost-effective response to these types of GCRs. This preliminary techno-economic assessment evaluates the potential of acetic acid (AA) derived from carbon dioxide (CO₂) via microbial electrosynthesis (MES) as an resilient food source for GCRs. Production and retail costs are estimated using net present value analyses for catastrophe and non-catastrophe scenarios. Based on nonstop (24/7) facility construction, the speed of food production ramp-up is estimated from capital expenditures using a reference class forecasting correlation. Potential production bottlenecks are assessed via a global resource requirement analysis. In regular conditions, the production cost of AA produced via MES is estimated at $1.83–$5.20/kg (dry). MES production ramp-up is expected to fulfill less than 1% of global human caloric requirements by the end of the first year after the catastrophe. The retail cost of AA produced via MES in catastrophe conditions is estimated at $6–$15/kg (dry). Potential bottlenecks to ramp up include high electricity use and platinum dependency, which could be palliated via alternative processes based on gasification or bioelectrodes. AA from MES is not currently recommended as a resilient food for GCRs, because it is significantly more expensive and resource intensive than alternatives. Future research may change this, and could perhaps even enable MES as a sustainable food production method outside of catastrophes, given its potential for CO₂ utilization.

U.S. Potential of Sustainable Backyard Distributed Animal and Plant Protein Production During & After Pandemics

T. Meyer, A. Pascaris, D. Denkenberger, J.M. Pearce. Sustainability, 13.9 (2021): 5067

Status: published (link)

Abstract: To safeguard against meat supply shortages during pandemics or other catastrophes, this study analyzed the potential to provide the average household’s entire protein consumption using either soybean production or distributed meat production at the household level in the U.S. with: 1) pasture-fed rabbits, 2) pellet and hay-fed rabbits, or 3) pellet-fed chickens. Only using the average backyard resources, soybean cultivation can provide 80%-160% of household protein and 0%-50% of a household’s protein needs can be provided by pasture-fed rabbits using only the yard grass as feed. If external supplementation of feed is available, raising 52 chickens while also harvesting the concomitant eggs or alternately 107 grain-fed rabbits can meet 100% of an average household’s protein requirements. These results show that resilience to future pandemics and challenges associated with growing meat demands can be incrementally addressed through backyard distributed protein production. Backyard production of chicken meat, eggs, and rabbit meat reduces environmental costs of protein due to savings in production, transportation, and refrigeration of meat products and even more so with soybeans. Generally, distributed production of protein was found to be economically competitive with centralized production of meat if distributed labor costs were ignored.

Chemical synthesis of food from CO₂ for space missions and food resilience

Juan B. García Martínez, Kyle A. Alvarado, Xenia Christodoulou, David C. Denkenberger. Journal of CO₂ Utilization, Volume 53, November 2021, 101726

Status: published (link)

Abstract: Recyclable food technologies are essential for long-term manned space missions. This research compares customary and alternative space foods to non-biological synthesis (NBS) systems using recycled CO₂. Using electrochemical conversion of CO₂ as a starting point, different carbohydrate synthesis routes are reviewed. Sugars and glycerol (glycerine) are considered as final products. Three roundtrip missions with 5 crew members and 3-year duration were analyzed: International Space Station, the Moon, and Mars. The equivalent system mass (ESM) technique was used to compare NBS systems to customarily storing prepackaged food, artificial-light grown Spirulina platensis, hydrogen-oxidizing bacteria (HOB), and microbial electrosynthesis (MES). This allows for a launch cost comparison of systems with different characteristics, including equipment mass, onboard volume, and power and heat rejection requirements. Power consumption was estimated via mass and energy balances using literature values. The Mars mission ESM of the NBS system is estimated to be within 10−30 tonnes. This was compared to an average of 65 t for Spirulina, 35 t for prepackaged food, 25 t for MES, and 11 t for HOB. NBS is estimated to be among the most energy efficient options, together with HOB and MES. Electricity-to-food conversion efficiencies of 10–21% and single-pass carbon yields up to ∼70% are expected for an NBS system. Although NBS is not recommended over all alternatives (i.e. HOB), it is recommended over the prepackaged food and Spirulina benchmarks. These food production technologies could also help humanity survive extreme catastrophes.

Food production in space from CO₂ using microbial electrosynthesis

Kyle A. Alvarado, Juan B. García Martínez, Michael M. Brown, Xenia Christodoulou, David C. Denkenberger

Status: submitted

Abstract: Purpose: Human space survival requires sustainable food production methods. The current food method in space is launching prepackaged food which is costly and unsustainable. Alternatives include growing crops and microalgae single cell protein (SCP) using artificial light photosynthesis, which are also costly and inefficient. Methods: Prepackaged food and SCP food growing solutions were compared to microbial electrosynthesis of acetic acid (MES-AA) using electroactive bacteria. The analysis employed an equivalent system mass (ESM) technique customarily used by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to compare and select from alternative systems. Since the dominant cost of a space mission is the cost of launching mass, components of a system are converted to an equivalent mass, including power, heat rejection, and on-board volume. Distinct three-year roundtrip manned missions were evaluated for the International Space Station, the Moon, and Mars. Results: The average ESM of MES-AA is 1.38 times and 2.84 times lower than prepackaged food and microalgae SCP, respectively. The alternative food with the lowest average ESM in space, SCP from hydrogen-oxidizing bacteria (HOB), is 1.86 times lower than MES-AA. The expected electricity-to-calorie energy conversion efficiency of MES is 19.8%; consuming 3.45 kW to fully feed five astronauts with acetic acid (though in actuality, diets would need to be composed of multiple foods). Conclusions: MES-AA has a higher energy efficiency than any currently investigated alternative food in space. The most promising food source is HOB, having the lowest ESM and highest nutritional quality. However, MES can provide diet diversity at a lower cost than customarily storing prepackaged food or growing crops in space.

Risk analysis and corrosion prevention during industrial power failure,

Jia Yang Li, David C. Denkenberger

Status: about to be submitted

Abstract: Modern civilisation depends on many different sectors functioning well and concurrently to run smoothly. This includes the energy sector, the transport sector, and the information technology sector. As such, the consequences can be catastrophic if these sectors were to fail due to some form of power outage or disaster. Possible causes include a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse from a nuclear bomb or a solar storm, a pandemic worse than COVID-19 causing people to be too fearful to work in critical industries, or a cyber-attack. Some work has been done on what could happen if such sectors are disabled, but virtually none on how to cope or to prepare for the loss. First, estimates of how long such a power outage will last were calculated. Next, scenarios where there is a power loss in industry for at least 5 to 25 years was explored. The consequences of such a scenario with regards to corrosion were considered. Possible strategies for what can be done to prepare for such scenarios were also explored. It was found that considering the design, removing corrosive components, and using coatings and packaging were the cheapest ways to reduce corrosion risks.

Other research projects

Crop Diseases & Pests - Roundtable Report on Interventions, Food System Handbook, September 2021

Report status: published (link)

Summary: Crop pests and diseases result in large and variable production losses, often contributing to food insecurity. Climate change and increasing global trade will both lead to many regions facing new pest and disease challenges. The latest Food Systems Handbook report highlights several promising solutions, including creating resistant plants using genetic engineering, and implementing improved early warning systems.

Crop pests and diseases have always taken a significant toll on agricultural production, and despite rapid advances in scientific understanding and technological prowess over the previous decades, resultant yield losses are generally still in excess of 20%. Predictable, consistent losses would be manageable, but there is significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity in pest and disease impacts. A confluence of climatic, economic, and biological factors can cause total loss of a crop in an area. It is these more extreme cases that are of particular concern to food security. As well as causing significant direct harms to many crops from extreme weather, drought, and temperature changes, climate change will also change the distribution of many pest species. This will also be dangerous for food security, as farmers will often be unprepared and ill-equipped to contain novel pests in a region. Invasive alien species, including those damaging to crops, are also becoming more common due to ever-increasing anthropogenic changes to ecosystems, including through trade introducing new species inadvertently. Several interventions to combat pests and diseases are available. Genetic modification technology has great promise, as researchers can create new crop varieties with multiple pathogen resistance mechanisms, conferring longer-lasting resistance compared to traditional plant-breeding approaches. Early warning systems are also key to inform farmers of what pests and diseases are most likely to pose an imminent threat, and allow for timely action, yet this is only worthwhile when coupled with effective management strategies. Integrated pest management takes a holistic approach, simultaneously employing many chemical, biological and physical safeguards to protect the crop. Post-harvest losses can also often be easily prevented with improved storage technology, and employing diverse crop rotations or intercropping, especially including legumes, can improve resilience.

Alternative financial products for food security

Michael Hinge, Edward Wilkinson, Sahil Shah, and Noah Wescombe

(Link)

Overview: Building resilience and capacity prior to food shocks requires capital to be raised so that investments can occur. Often, this capital has been hard to acquire, leaving many vital investments in food security unfunded, and the poorest exposed to shocks.

ALLFED’s work on alternative financial products attempts to bridge this gap, coming up with novel solutions to problems where traditional insurance or fundraising has failed.

These include novel catastrophe bonds, which would raise funds in advance of the disaster occurring and would allow a faster and more effective response as a result. The first of these would target locusts, and would seek to both raise funds and carry out procurement well in advance of the next outbreak so that responses could occur immediately, safeguarding livelihoods of farmers in the at-risk regions. However, there are many other opportunities, including post disaster recovery of farm areas, support for rebuilding vital infrastructure needed for logistics, and support for food security in pandemics.

A white paper has been produced for the locust bond or insurance product, which would focus on accelerating control operations across the Horn of Africa.

Informal government support has been received from governments including Ethiopia, and the work has been presented at the InsuResilience Agriculture Technical Working Group. By ensuring both pre-procurement and pre-financing, locust outbreaks can be suppressed earlier, considerably reducing the impact of outbreaks that threaten the food supply of billions.

We have undertaken extensive stakeholder engagement work too, and have expressions of interest from academic groups to undertake some more complex modelling, a broker to help with structuring the product, and a number of potential donors and investors.

Pandemic Resilience Bond Modelling - Assessing the Role of Travel Networks in Pandemic Risk from Emerging Infectious Diseases

Pedro Adami Oliboni, Siméon Campos, and Ross Tieman

Abstract: Emerging infectious disease (EID) represents a potential source of pathogens for future pandemics. Previous EID risk assessments have focused on intra country risk neglecting the role air travel networks play in distributing risk to other countries. We develop a hybrid risk assessment by combining existing EID risk assessment frameworks and global air travel data in the creation of three risk models: a heuristic model, a Global Epidemic and Mobility model (GLEAM) instantiated through epirisk.net, and a Susceptible Infectious Removed (SIR) model. The three models probe different aspects of global EID risk, allowing important characteristics to be identified. The results of these models indicate travel networks play a key role in distribution of risk globally. Several policy recommendations concerning how best to prioritize relevant EID risk mitigation efforts. This provides a starting point to investigate pandemic risk resulting from EID more holistically, and is intended to catalyse more detailed risk assessments and modelling studies, including potential for disruptions to key agricultural commodity trading hubs and resulting food security impacts.

Promoting disaster preparedness and resilience through financial risk management and innovation for food tail risks

A handout was put together and training delivered for the Alliance for Financial Inclusion, including central banks and financial regulators around the world. The training introduced compounding, cascading, and tail risks to these stakeholders before identifying key risks such as multiple breadbasket failures and relating this to scalar credit at risk and institutional materiality. The training then introduced the potential and role of various financial products, including but not limited to insurance, resilience bonds, and contingent credit (catastrophe draw-down options) before noting current bottlenecks needed to scale them, including data gaps and modelling challenges, and then touched upon the potential for GIS analysis as a tool to analyze multi-dimensional risk.