Hey Eugene, interesting stuff! 

1) Long-term AI is very likely a complement; short-term, it may be a substitute”

I wonder why you think this?

2) "Good evidence suggests AI benefits the already skilled"

I feel like the evidence here is quite mixed: e.g., see this article from the economist: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/02/13/how-ai-will-divide-the-best-from-the-rest

If we treat digital minds like current animal livestock, the expected value of the future could be really bad.