Thank you for the response! I should have been a bit clearer: This is what inspired me to write this, but I still need 3-5 sentences to explain to a policymaker what they are looking at when you show them this kind of calibration graph. I am looking for something even shorter than that.
 

Simple Forecasting Metrics?
I've been thinking about the simplicity of explaining certain forecasting concepts versus the complexity of others. Take calibration, for instance: it's simple to explain. If someone says something is 80% likely, it should happen about 80% of the time. But other metrics, like the Brier score, are harder to convey: What exactly does it measure? How well does it reflect a forecaster's accuracy? How do you interpret it? All of this requires a lot of explanation for anyone not interested in the science of Forecasting. 

What if we had an easily interpretable metric that could tell you, at a glance, whether a forecaster is accurate? A metric so simple that it could fit within a tweet or catch the attention of someone skimming a report—someone who might be interested in platforms like Metaculus. Imagine if we could say, "When Metaculus predicts something with 80% certainty, it happens between X and Y% of the time," or "On average, Metaculus forecasts are off by X%". This kind of clarity could make comparing forecasting sources and platforms far easier. 

I'm curious whether anyone has explored creating such a concise metric—one that simplifies these ideas for newcomers while still being informative. It could be a valuable way to persuade others to trust and use forecasting platforms or prediction markets as reliable sources. I'm interested in hearing any thoughts or seeing any work that has been done in this direction.

Hi there!

I really enjoy the curated EA forum podcast and appreciate all the effort that goes into it. However, I wanted to flag a small issue: in my podcast app, emojis cannot be included in filenames. With the increasing use of the "🔸" in forum usernames, this has been causing some problems.

Would it be possible to remove emojis from the filenames?

Thanks for considering this!

This is a very non-EA opinion, but personally I quite like this on, for lack of a better word, aesthetics grounds: Charities should be accountable to someone, in the same way as companies are to shareholders, and politicians are to electorates. Membership models are a good way of achieving that. I am a little sad that my local EA group is not organized in the same way.

Just to clarify, I assume that our distributions will not be made public / associated with our names? 

What surprises me about this work is that it does not seem to include the more aggressive (for lack of a better word) alternatives I have heard being thrown around, like "Suffering-free", or "Clean", or "cruelty-free".

I am aware of Metaforecast, but from what I understood, it is no longer maintained. Last time I checked, it did not work with Metaculus anymore. It is also not very easy to use, to be honest. 

They seem really good! I feel like an idiot for asking this, but where on their website can I subscribe to the newsletter? 

Thank you for writing this and for your kind words about the Dutch EA community!

I am curious to know whether you feel like an organisation that doubles down on a single country could be more effective? At least in the political realm, it should be possible to build good relationships with the relevant political actors, though obviously you would trade away a lot of expertise that comes from having a more international perspective. 

This seems incredibly exciting! I know several organizations that are looking to spin up their own internal forecasting systems, but can't find a good open-source system to use as a basis. Metaculus is definitely the most advanced forecasting system available, and I am super excited to see whether it will be possible to host local versions of it!