Side note, I’m coming around to the idea the Prohibition isn’t actually a failed policy (except in the sense that it was overturned), because the decrease in domestic violence actually exceeded the amount of violence perpetrated by bootleggers. But from a democratic policymaking perspective, the legibility of the violence matters.

Here’s an essay from Vox making this case.

there is ample opportunity for peaceful and mutually beneficial trade with AIs that do not share our utility functions

What would humans have to offer AIs for trade in this scenario, where there are "more competitive machine alternatives to humans in almost all societal functions"?

as long as this is done peacefully and lawfully

What do these words even mean in an ASI context? If humans are relatively disempowered, this would also presumably extend to the use of force and legal contexts.

The use of the word “shall” makes it sound like you are confidently predicting the EU will do it, as opposed to to proposing asking the EU to do it.

This question was also discussed in this other forum post, and probably in some other posts that I can’t find. Why Brain Drain Isn't Something We Should Worry About

I feel like @Zvi  put it well when he wrote,

I don’t see any wolves. So why are you proposing to have a boy watch the sheep and yell ‘wolf’ if a wolf shows up? Stop crying wolf.

Thanks Julia for writing this. It’s correct all the way around.

I can’t help but feel though that there is something a little mean-spirited in targeting those donating to Notre Dame, the opera, etc. There is a common and (in my opinion) somewhat toxic pattern where if someone spends their money on yachts, mansions, etc., then nobody complains but as soon as they do something even a little bit public spirited then all of a sudden everyone feels free to criticize. Like, we can have plenty of objections to MacKenzie Scott’s philanthropic choices, but shouldn’t Jeff Bezos get at least as much commentary for his non-philanthropic choices?

What is an HEA?

Can you give an example of the sort of prediction market you’re referring to, or what kind of consequences there have been?

Is donating via payroll deduction a simpler way to achieve this result?

Here’s a summary of UK tax treatment of charitable donations. As I understand it, donations are sometime deductible, and sometimes eligible for gift aid, but never both.

GWWC has a somewhat complicated treatment of gift aid; you can count gift aid towards your pledge, but

If you are counting Gift Aid towards your pledge it is recommended to calculate your pledge amount based on your pre-tax income. If you are not claiming Gift Aid or any tax benefit then it is recommended to calculate your pledge amount based on your post-tax income.