An AI that could perfectly predict human text would have a lot of capabilities that humans don't have. (Note that it is impossible for any AI to perfectly predict human text, but an imperfect text-predictor may have weaker versions of many of the capabilities a perfect predictor would have.) Some examples include:
In addition to this, modern LLM model training typically consists of two steps, a standard predict the next word first training step, and a reinforcement learning based second step. Models trained with reinforcement learning can in principle become even better than models just trained with next-token prediction.
For what it's worth, this is not a prediction, Sundar Pichai said it in an NYT interview: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/31/technology/google-pichai-ai.html
My best guess is it will be announced once the switch happens in order to get some good press for Google Bard.
Apparently Bard currently uses an older and less sizable language model called LaMDA as its base (you may remember it as the model a Google employee thought was sentient). They're planning on switching over to a more capable model PaLM sometime soon, so Bard should get much closer to GPT at that point.
I think the implicit claim here is that because SBF (or Dustin/Cari for that matter) was a major EA donor, everything he donates counts as an EA donation. But I don't think that's the right way to look at it. It's not logic we'd apply to other people - I donate a chunk of my money to various EA-affiliated causes, but if I one day decided to donate to the Met most people would consider that separate from my EA giving.
I would classify donations as EA donations if they fall into one of the below two buckets:
I didn't check whether you addressed this, but an article from The Information claims that OpenAI's API ARR reached $1B as of March: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/a-peek-behind-openais-financials-dont-underestimate-china?rc=qcqkcj
A separate The Information article claims that OpenAI receives $200MM ARR as a cut of MSFT's OpenAI model-based cloud revenue, which I'm not sure is included in your breakdown: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openais-annualized-revenue-doubles-to-3-4-billion-since-late-2023?rc=qcqkcj
These articles are not public though - they are behind a paywall.