Yeah, it seems like even if it's possible to take back Crimea with conventional weapons, there's an extremely high chance of a Russian retaliation or denial strategy that features tactical nukes or something else. We can hope that there's a Stanislav Petrov 2.0 in the ranks somewhere I guess...
Do you have a strong sense of which weapons systems, drones, etc. would be most decisive on the conventional front? Other than the few that I've mentioned in the post, I'm still pretty naive to what's important here.
Hindsight is 20:20, but do you think it was a net good for Ukraine to give up its nukes? I know it didn't have the C2 capabilities to actually use them at the time and economically was kind of strongarmed into it and all else equal I know it's better if fewer countries have them, but maybe it would have prevented this current war which has significant escalation potential.