Each individuals qualia being equal, healthier and happier humans actively improve the future whereas healthier and happier animals do not.  

 

Imade two prediction markets that are highly related several months ago - kudos to you for doing far more work than me!

 

I've made this market to help predict the likelihood:

https://manifold.markets/RobertCousineau/when-will-the-new-world-screwworm-b?r=Um9iZXJ0Q291c2luZWF1

Agreed - I do not mean to imply nuclear holocaust would not be horrible.

I do not think the FLI should cherry pick extraordinarily high numbers to make that case though, and them doing so/us sharing them doing so eats away at our epistemic commons.

I'd really rather not show that video to a well informed friend as they'd go "Wait, but I know that's wrong" and then discount other things I say about X-Risk.

I find it disappointing they reference nuclear winter without qualifying that it is quite unlikely given today's arsenals. I would reccomend against sharing it in it's current state.

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear

What have you found the EA community to be like in Tulsa?  I've grown partial to having EA/Rationality events in Seattle and somewhat concerned about losing out on those in Tulsa?