SantaRKlaas
Comments17
I'm still surprised FLI didn't rummage around their Wikipedia page before sending a non binding LOI.
Yet the tweets you linked were from 2/16 and 2/17.
Rational expectations doesn't mean "the alarmists are always right," and EMH doesn't imply that no one can profit helping correct the market.
The tweets you linked demonstrate the confusion at the time. Robin thought that China would be overwhelmed with COVID in a few months, while the rest of the world would be closing contact. In fact the rest of the world got overwhelmed with COVID and crashed their economies in just one month, while China contained it and kept its economy rolling for another two years. Rational expectations would've incorporated views like Robin's, but not parroted them. A plateau from early January and crash on 2/20 isn't inconsistent with that.
The plateau beginning early January could be read as an initial reaction to covid.
I wouldn't expect the markets to react in tandem with the most alarmist rationalists. I participated in a rationalist prediction tournament in mid-January 2020 where only one participant gave COVID >50% odds of killing 10000 people. The EAF post you linked was an unusual view at the time, as were Travis W Fisher's comments at Metaculus. I grant that the rationalist consensus preceded the market's reaction, but only by days.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia
The Dow plateaued in early January and crashed starting Feb 20th, tracking rational expectations and three weeks ahead of media/mass awareness, which only caught up around March 12th
I’m young enough that no adults are half my age, so this is just about my knowledge of Anglo culture. Is there some rule about age gaps between adults? I’ve seen some online snark about Leo DiCaprio but no claims that he and people like him are violating cultural norms by dating adults who are much younger than them.