UlfJohansson
Bio
Participation2
I am a lecturer in public health at Halmstad University, Sweden. Since 2019, I have been helping Happier Lives Institute. My main interests are system change, tax policy, global health and public health. At the moment I am writing a draft about EA System Change.
How others can help me
Help me start EA System Change.
How I can help others
I am good at finding articles, I have much knowledge about public health and I have quite many connections in the EA community. I am also doing a little research and I have knowledge about things that may not be very common in the EA community. E.g. welfare systems, income equality, global mental health and so on. So I would gladly help if you need it!
Posts 3
Comments12
Thank you Jackva, you have very wise input. I would also want the most impactful long-term policies as well. I think that the climate change already have gone so far that we need quite much focus on the short-term. For example, UNEP estimates that 25 to 50 % of all coral reefs are already destroyed, mostly because of global warming, and 70 to 90 % will be gone if we reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Many of your suggestions are good for both short-term and long-term impact so I agree that it could be better than the policies in the article. Policies like regulations and pricing may have long-term consequences as well since they have been reducing the amount of CO2 for many years, but policies like these may not be stable over time because of political decisions. But e.g. innovation-support, as you mentioned, probably have more stability.
Thank you all for your comments! I agree that these policies may not have a massive global impact in the same way as clean energy policies, but 26 to 41 % in reductions is still a lot. I believe that additional effort and innovation-support is important as well. But carbon pricing and things like innovation-support can be combined. The Swiss CO2 Levy uses carbon pricing to give money to innovation, for example (see text below). As you see in the text below and in this graph by OECD, the cost for raising prices for carbon emissions can increase revenues as well. But I agree that it would be more interesting with an article with pure focus on cost-effectiveness.
I have addressed some of these issues in a previous forum post. I copy and paste a part from it here:
"In Canada, they have a fuel charge of 80 $ per tonne of gasoline and an output-based pricing system for emissions from industries. The Canada Carbon Rebate gives 90 % of this money back to individuals while the rest goes to small- and medium-enterprises, farmers and Indigenous governments. A family of four can get $ 1 800 annually through the carbon rebate, a single adult could get 900 $ (more if the person lives in a rural area). Without their carbon pricing systems, Canada would have approximately 19 million tonnes of more emissions. The Swiss CO2 Levy is imposed on all thermal fossil fuels (142 USD per tonne) and then the 1.42 billion USD it generates is redistributed to the population and it is also going to innovation, renewable heating energy and energy efficient renovations of buildings."
I hope that I have answered to everything, otherwise I am happy to discuss this further!
Of 1500 climate policies that have been implemented over the past 25 years, the 63 most successful ones are in this article (that I don't have access to, but a good summary is here). The 63 policies reduced between 0.6 billion and 1.8 billion metric tonnes CO2 emissions. The typical effects that the 63 most effective policies had, could close the emissions gap by 26%-41%. Pricing is most effective in developed countries, while regulations are the most effective policies in developing countries. The climate policy explorer shows the best policies for different countries and sectors. I just wanted to write this if EA:s who are interested in climate change and policy have missed this.
Kind regards,
Ulf Graf
I have a table here showing the difference between a country with low taxes (United States) and a country with high taxes (Sweden). What I want to say with the table is that people who are unemployed have much more money in Sweden compared to the US. Also, in Sweden the taxes are making the costs lower for elderly care, child care, education, health care, medicine and so on. So even if the taxes are higher, you probably have better access to health care, medicine and financial aid in Sweden even if you are living on a minimum income. Because of the redistribution of money, taxes are giving money to people in poverty.
| United States | Sweden |
Income tax for people earning below 50 000 USD: 10-12 %. Income tax for people earning over 50 000 USD: 22-37 %. | Income tax for people earning below 50 000 USD: 31 %. Income tax for people earning over 50 000 USD: 51 %. |
Value-added tax on goods and services: None. Instead some states have sales tax on around 6 %. | Value-added tax on goods and services: 25 % and all purchasers pay value-added tax. It amounts for 47 % of the total budget for the Swedish state. |
| Benefits in unemployment, share of previous income after five years: 9 %. | Benefits in unemployment, share of previous income after five years: 60 %. |
| Adequacy of minimum income benefits for a single person with no children: 6 % of median disposable income. | Adequacy of minimum income benefits for a single person with no children: 42 % of median disposable income. |
Net childcare costs for a couple with average wage: 32 %. Cost for one year in college: Over 9 000 USD / year. | Net childcare costs for a couple with average wage: 5 %. Cost for one year in college: None, you get money for that. |
Diabetes prevalence: 10.7 %. Epipen cost: 600-700 USD.
| Diabetes prevalence: 5.1 %. Epipen cost: 40 USD (if your medical expenses exceeeds 300 dollars a year, you get your medicine for free). |
| The social security contribution paid by the employer (caculated on top of the employee's salary): 7.65 %. | The social security contribution paid by the employer (caculated on top of the employee's salary): 31.4 %. |
A special thanks to Niklas Holmgren and Joel McGuire for the support and comments on the first draft!
By the way... Here is the list of main references if it is easier to look here:
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Thank you for your wise reply, again! Yes, that is true. Even if we stopped all CO2-emissions now, almost none of the existing would go away because it will be up there for such a long time. But methane vanishes more quickly.
Yes, you are correct here as well. Organizations like Future Matters, that is founded by EA people, are doing research and strategy consulting services in policy, politics, coalitions and movements. So they could use this kind of article, since they give advice to politicians and national policy makers. But I still think that taxes is an underestimated tool in the EA community, because even if e.g. innovation support probably is more effective when it comes to climate change, taxes can be used for reducing poverty, health problems and so on.