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Estimating value
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159
Shapley values: Better than counterfactuals
NunoSempere
NunoSempere
·
6y
ago
· 18m read
62
62
35
Shapley Values II: Philantropic Coordination Theory & other miscellanea.
NunoSempere
NunoSempere
·
5y
ago
· 35m read
1
1
62
Predicting the Value of Small Altruistic Projects: A Proof of Concept Experiment.
NunoSempere
NunoSempere
·
4y
ago
· 14m read
3
3
57
An experiment to evaluate the value of one researcher's work
NunoSempere
NunoSempere
·
4y
ago
· 12m read
23
23
88
Relative Impact of the First 10 EA Forum Prize Winners
NunoSempere
NunoSempere
·
4y
ago
· 22m read
35
35
194
2018-2019 Long-Term Future Fund Grantees: How did they do?
NunoSempere
NunoSempere
·
4y
ago
· 5m read
23
23
192
Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations
NunoSempere
NunoSempere
·
4y
ago
· 40m read
34
34
45
An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions
NunoSempere
NunoSempere
·
4y
ago
· 10m read
19
19
78
External Evaluation of the EA Wiki
NunoSempere
NunoSempere
·
3y
ago
· 23m read
18
18
46
Simple comparison polling to create utility functions
NunoSempere
NunoSempere
·
3y
ago
· 7m read
13
13
95
Five steps for quantifying speculative interventions
NunoSempere
NunoSempere
·
3y
ago
· 15m read
8
8
114
Valuing research works by eliciting comparisons from EA researchers
NunoSempere
NunoSempere
·
3y
ago
· 10m read
22
22
303
A Critical Review of Open Philanthropy’s Bet On Criminal Justice Reform
NunoSempere
NunoSempere
·
3y
ago
· 31m read
97
97
47
Introduction to Fermi estimates
NunoSempere
NunoSempere
·
3y
ago
· 8m read
8
8
111
An experiment eliciting relative estimates for Open Philanthropy’s 2018 AI safety grants
NunoSempere
NunoSempere
·
3y
ago
· 16m read
16
16
52
Simple estimation examples in Squiggle
NunoSempere
NunoSempere
·
3y
ago
· 8m read
13
13
33
Five slightly more hardcore Squiggle models.
NunoSempere
NunoSempere
·
3y
ago
· 8m read
0
0
81
Brief evaluations of top-10 billionnaires
NunoSempere
NunoSempere
·
3y
ago
· 7m read
66
66
436
My highly personal skepticism braindump on existential risk from artificial intelligence.
NunoSempere
NunoSempere
·
2y
ago
· 17m read
116
116
17
Use of “I’d bet” on the EA Forum is mostly metaphorical
NunoSempere
NunoSempere
·
2y
ago
· 1m read
12
12
64
Estimation for sanity checks
NunoSempere
NunoSempere
·
2y
ago
· 4m read
7
7
25
Some estimation work in the horizon
NunoSempere
NunoSempere
·
2y
ago
· 5m read
0
0