Thank you for sharing your donation choices!

This is great, thanks for doing this survey!

Kudos for making this post! I think it's hard to notice when money would best we spent elsewhere, particularly when you do actually have a use for it, and I appreciate you being willing to share this.

Fair enough! fwiw I would not have guessed that most pause AI supporters have a p(doom) of 90%+. My guess is that the crux between you is actually that they believe it's worth pushing for a policy even if you I think it's possible you will change your mind in the future. (But people should correct me if I'm wrong!)

"Demis Hassabis, reckless!" honestly feels to me like a pretty tame protest chant. I did a Google search for "protest" and this was the first result. Signs are things like "one year of genocide funded by UT" which seems both substantially more extreme and less epistemically valid than calling Demis "reckless."

My sense from your other points is that you just don't actually want pause AI to accomplish their goals, so it's kind of over-determined for you, but if I wanted to tell a story about how a grassroots movement successfully got a international pause on AI, various people chanting that the current AI development process is reckless seems pretty fine to me?

Huh, fwiw this is not my anecdotal experience. I would suggest that this is because I spend more time around doomers than you and doomers are very influenced by Yudkowsky's "don't fight over which monkey gets to eat the poison banana first" framing, but that seems contradicted by your example being ACX, who is also quite doomer-adjacent.

In my post, I suggested that one possible future is that we stay at the "forefront of weirdness." Calculating moral weights, to use your example.

I could imagine though that the fact that our opinions might be read by someone with access to the nuclear codes changes how we do things.

I wish there was more debate about which of these futures is more desirable.

(This is what I was trying to get out with my original post. I'm not trying to make any strong claims about whether any individual person counts as "EA".)

Maybe instead of "where people actually listen to us" it's more like "EA in a world where people filter the most memetically fit of our ideas through their preconceived notions into something that only vaguely resembles what the median EA cares about but is importantly different from the world in which EA didn't exist."

Congrats, Sjir!

This is great, thanks so much for writing it.