M

MichaelStJules

Independent researcher
11634 karmaJoined Working (6-15 years)Vancouver, BC, Canada

Bio

I mostly do philosophy, global priorities and animal welfare research. My current specific interests include: philosophy of mind, moral weights, person-affecting views, preference-based views and subjectivism, moral uncertainty, decision theory, deep uncertainty and cluelessness, and indirect effects on wild animals.

I've also done economic modelling for some animal welfare issues.

Sequences
3

Radical empathy
Human impacts on animals
Welfare and moral weights

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2496

Topic contributions
12

Given your (partial) success in court (reported here and here), have your plans changed for what you'd use extra funding for? And has the funding gap changed? Your post says:

We will now explore bringing private prosecutions against mega-farms that use Frankenchickens.

I could imagine that a higher human population could induce demand for agriculture and increased trash output which could increase terrestrial invertebrate populations.

So this would be more food/net primary productivity available for terrestrial invertebrates to eat, and agriculture would have to increase net primary productivity overall (EDIT: or transform it into a more useful form for invertebrates), right?

My best guess is that more humans reduces wild terrestrial invertebrate populations in the near term / on Earth (so ignoring space colonization), largely through agricultural land use.[1] If you think:

  1. these wild invertebrates or even just wild insects matter a decent amount, say about as much as RP does/would (interpolating their estimates), and
  2. they have lives worth preventing, because you're suffering-focused or just think they have net negative lives, say, due to their high fertility and mortality rates,

then increasing human populations could be good for animals in the near term, with the effect on wild animals outweighing those on farmed animals.

It's unclear to me what's going on with wild aquatic animals.

  1. ^

    See especially Tables 3 and 4 from Attwood et al., 2008.
    Net primary productivity is also typically lower in crops, across crops, based on "Land Use Change" greenhouse gas emissions from OWID / Poore & Nemecek, 2018.
    Gross primary productivity decreases when replacing forest with crops, but increases if replacing grassland with crops, according to the globally representative study Krause et al., 2022.
    Some other studies support increased and others decreased net productivity in crops compared to nature (Tomasik, 2013–2022, a, b)
    But pesticides and fertilizers also plausibly reduce arthropod populations based on my lit reviews (but less clear in the long run with repeated use), so even if primary productivity increased, arthropod populations could still be lower overall.

I'd guess other forage fish's life histories will give you a general idea of bristlemouths' life histories.

About Peruvian anchoveta, one of the most wild-caught fish, representing 28% of the number of fish caught annually on average (Mood & Brooke, 2024), Molina-Valdivia et al. (2020) write:

Early larval growth and mortality of anchoveta is highly variable at intra-seasonal and latitudinal scales along the Chilean coast. In northern Chile (23 °S), larval growth varies between 0.50- and 0.85-mm day−1, with daily losses of 16–23% (Contreras et al., 2017); meanwhile, in central Chile (36 °S), larvae grew at 0.40-0.57 mm day−1, with daily losses of 4–7% (Castro and Hernández, 2000; Hernández and Castro, 2000).

See also Fig. 4. H (and G for another species) for the drop in abundance over time as larvae, leaving less than 1% after 40 days according to their fitted model.

 

Butler et al. (1993, Tables 1, 2, 3 and 4) report fecundity and mortality estimates for northern anchovies (Engraulis mordax) and Pacific sardines (Sardinops sagax) at various life stages. A female northern anchovy spawns 5.3 to 23.5 times per year, 4,000 to 14,000 eggs each time. I have some calculations for mortality rates at various life stages based on this paper here.

I think bristlemouths just make up a large share of all fish, by numbers of individuals. Lanternfish do, too. When someone says "a quadrillion", this is an order of magnitude estimate, so it could easily be 3x too high or 3x too low. The estimates seem consistent to me as order of magnitude estimates, as long as bristlemouths do make up a decent share of all fish, like >30% of individuals.

The Micronekton Wikipedia page says:

Bristlemouths (Gonostomatidae), largely Cyclothone, account for more than 50% of the total vertebrate abundance between 100 and 1000 m. Twenty-one species of bristlemouths have been described globally. Lanternfishes are the secondmost abundant marine vertebrates, having diversified into 252 species.[24]

Futhermore, among pelagic fishes from 0-5000 m in the Sargasso Sea, northwestern Atlantic Ocean, “[t]he bristlemouth, Cyclothone braueri, dominated the catches both above (47%) and below (41%) 1000 m” (Sutton et al., 2010).

The number of bristlemouths has been estimated to be in the “hundreds of trillions — and perhaps quadrillions, or thousands of trillions” (Broad, 2015), so 10^14 to 10^16.

I estimated the number of lanternfish to be approximately between 10^14 and 10^16, based on a “total global biomass of 1.8 to 16 gigatonnes, accounting for up to 65% of all deep-sea fish biomass” (Lanternfish - Wikipedia, based on Hulley, 1998, pp. 127–128, ISBN 0-12-547665-5) and an average weight of "two to six grams" (Blacow, 2015).

This is all from my piece Which animals are most affected by fishing?

 

On whether they're R-strategists: ecologists may have moved on from that classification, but either way, bristlemouths are fish, and almost all fish species, as far as I know, have many offspring (at least hundreds?) and high juvenile mortality rates (>90%?). Bristlemouths are forage fish, so food for predators. But they also probably eat zooplankton, like copepods.

We’re facing a funding gap of £236k this year and seek long-term funding to continue our work and give us greater financial stability.

Any updates on this since this was posted?

How much room for more funding do you expect to have in general for work in 2025 (after including funding coming from ACE)?

  1. I'm clueless about the sign of the effects on wild aquatic animals (based on this project), and the effects on wild aquatic animals could be more important than the effects on farmed aquatic animals.
  2. Reductions in animal agriculture, including aquaculture, have a high risk of backfiring overall, in case they're bad for wild terrestrial arthropods. In particular, animal agriculture, including aquaculture, tends to decrease wild terrestrial arthropod populations through land use (for crops and/or pasture), and possibly substantially (Attwood et al., 2008, Tables 3 and 4), so reducing animal agriculture in general can increase wild terrestrial arthropod suffering by increasing their populations.
  3. Aquaculture tends to have smaller effects on wild terrestrial arthropods than land vertebrate farming due to lower land use per kg of output/protein, and a targeted reduction of aquaculture — and not a broader reduction across animal agriculture in general — will, via substitution effects, shift some animal production towards land vertebrate farming and increase fishing pressure (and have highly uncertain net effects on wild aquatic animals, but actual wild capture production could go up or down overall [1][2]). This could reduce or even flip the wild terrestrial animal effects in 3.
  4. Based on my own unpublished calculations, the targeted reduction of shrimp farming in particular seems good for farmed animals + wild terrestrial animals together (if you think wild arthropods have bad or ~neutral lives in expectation, and your moral weights for shrimp are high enough), although still highly uncertain for wild aquatic animals. However, my calculations need more review.
  5. Not a backfire effect, but work to reduce aquaculture seems to reduce insect and brine shrimp farming in expectation, and this would, on my view, count in its favour. I don't know if these effects or the effects on wild animals would be more important, because I haven't really looked into it enough.

Even the best counterexample to (a theoretical version of) IIT consists in building a simple system with a high measure of “integrated information”: I entirely agree with that line of attack, that is fatal both for large monotonous matrices and tiny shrimp brains. 

How does this argument apply to shrimp?

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